Analisis Struktur Biaya Adaptif sebagai Prediktor Early Warning System Risiko Discontinuity Operasional pada Usaha Mikro Kecil

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of fixed cost proportion and average variable cost (AVC) on the short-term shutdown risk of micro and small enterprises. The research is motivated by the limited understanding of business owners regarding the distinction between fixed and variable costs, which often leads to difficulties in making operational decisions during periods of declining revenue. A quantitative approach was employed using multiple linear regression analysis with 40 micro and small enterprise owners in Makassar City as respondents. The results indicate that both fixed cost proportion and average variable cost have a positive and significant effect on short-term shutdown risk, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.661. This suggests that the two variables jointly explain 66.1% of the variation in shutdown risk, while the remaining 33.9% is influenced by other factors outside the model. Partially, the fixed cost proportion is identified as the most dominant factor affecting the likelihood of operational shutdowns. These findings imply that an unbalanced cost structure can increase potential losses and reduce the ability of micro and small enterprises to survive in fluctuating market conditions. Therefore, business owners are encouraged to minimize fixed cost proportions and enhance variable cost efficiency to maintain business stability in the short term.